Lilly’s tirzepatide shows greater weight‑loss than Novo Nordisk’s high‑dose semaglutide in indirect analysis
Eli Lilly presented an indirect treatment comparison at the EASD meeting indicating that tirzepatide 15 mg produced 4.5 % more average weight loss than semaglutide 7.2 mg over 72 weeks. The analysis, which combined data from SURMOUNT‑1 and STEP UP trials, showed statistically significant advantage under the treatment‑regimen estimand but not under the efficacy estimand. Lilly also cited its SURMOUNT‑5 trial, a head‑to‑head study where tirzepatide achieved 20.2 % weight loss versus 13.7 % for semaglutide. Experts said the findings are hypothesis‑generating for clinicians deciding between the two agents.
Why it matters
Lilly’s release suggests tirzepatide may offer superior weight‑loss outcomes, which could influence prescribing patterns and market share in the obesity‑treatment segment. The company’s own data frames the indirect comparison as evidence for physicians, while the SURMOUNT‑5 results provide a direct efficacy signal.
Key facts
- 1Tirzepatide 15 mg lost 4.5 % more body weight than semaglutide 7.2 mg (95 % CrI ‑6.3 to ‑2.8) using the treatment‑regimen estimand over 72 weeks. drugtopics.com
- 2Tirzepatide 10 mg lost 3.2 % more weight than semaglutide 7.2 mg (95 % CrI ‑5.0 to ‑1.4) using the treatment‑regimen estimand. drugtopics.com
- 3Under the efficacy estimand, tirzepatide 15 mg showed a 1.8 % greater mean weight reduction (95 % CrI ‑3.8 to 0.1), not statistically significant. drugtopics.com
- 4In SURMOUNT‑5, tirzepatide achieved 20.2 % weight loss versus 13.7 % for semaglutide at 72 weeks (a 47 % relative difference). drugtopics.com
- 5Odds of achieving ≥20 % weight loss favored tirzepatide 15 mg with OR 4.15 (95 % CrI 1.02‑15.64) under the efficacy estimand. drugtopics.com
- 6Discontinuation rates due to adverse events were comparable across tirzepatide 10 mg, 15 mg and semaglutide 7.2 mg. drugtopics.com
Open questions
- Statistical significance differs between the treatment‑regimen and efficacy estimands, creating uncertainty about the true magnitude of advantage.
Summary written by AlphAI from 2 of 2 sources. Not investment advice. Figures are as stated by the linked sources.