Novavax and Moderna shares tumble after WHO deems Russian plague risk low

The World Health Organization announced that the risk of a plague outbreak in Russia is low, prompting a sharp decline in Novavax and Moderna stocks. Novavax fell about 12% while Moderna dropped roughly 6% after earlier gains fueled by speculation of emergency vaccine orders. The companies have no plague vaccine, and the market corrected the earlier rally. Analysts project Novavax's revenue to drop from $1.12 billion in 2025 to $373 million in 2026.

The WHO's assessment removed speculative upside for both firms, leading to immediate price declines. The revenue outlook cited by analysts suggests a significant contraction in Novavax's sales, which could affect its cash flow and valuation.

  • 1Novavax shares fell 12% on Tuesday after the WHO said the plague risk in Russia is low.
  • 2Moderna shares dropped about 6% on the same day.
  • 3Analysts project Novavax revenue to decline from $1.12 billion in 2025 to $373 million in 2026.
  • 4Novavax trades at more than 8x forward sales, above its five‑year average of 2.3x.
  • 5The WHO estimated the risk as moderate to low for Irkutsk, low for Russia overall, and very low for the WHO European region.

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