Lula’s surprise re‑election triggers sharp sell‑off in Brazilian stocks and ETFs

Incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva won the runoff with 51.79% of the vote, overturning market expectations of a right‑wing victory. Analysts warned the Brazilian real could weaken by at least 7% and the Ibovespa could tumble double‑digits when trading opened. The iShares MSCI Brazil ETF (EWZ) fell more than 18% overnight and other Brazil‑linked assets slid sharply.

The sell‑off depresses the value of Brazil‑focused ETFs and ADRs, reducing exposure for investors holding EWZ, ITUB, ABEV and VALE. The expected 7% real depreciation also raises the cost of dollar‑denominated debt for Brazilian companies.

  • 1Lula secured 51.79% of valid votes in the runoff, defeating Flávio Bolsonaro who received 48.21%.
  • 2Analyst Guilherme Abbud said the real could weaken at least 7% and the Ibovespa could fall as much as 10% when markets open.
  • 3The iShares MSCI Brazil ETF (EWZ) dropped 18.36% in overnight trading.
  • 4Brazil’s real lost about 8% against the dollar in early Monday trading.
  • 5Ibovespa futures fell almost 15% after the election result was announced.

Sources