Southern Copper maps route to over 1M tonnes by 2029
Southern Copper (SCCO) expects copper output to exceed 1M tonnes by 2029 as its Tia Maria project nears the halfway mark. It raised 2026 guidance to 917,000 tonnes, expects 970,000 tonnes in 2028, and forecasts a slight global copper deficit with exchange inventories at about 15 days of demand. Q2 sales were $4.3B, adjusted EBITDA $2.86B, net income $1.67B.
How this was made
The 30-second read
Why it matters
The update is a forward production roadmap (2026-2029) plus financing and permitting progress, which can shift valuation assumptions around long-term throughput and execution probability.
Market read
Traders can use the updated production trajectory and execution/permitting details to reassess SCCO’s medium-term earnings power and copper-price sensitivity.
What to watch
The article notes a 12% Peru production decline from ore grades and recoveries; if that weakness persists, consolidated cost and cash-flow could be pressured despite Tia Maria progress.
Background
Southern Copper is advancing its flagship Tia Maria project in Peru while managing weaker Peru output and ongoing development challenges at Los Chancas.
Ticker impact
Southern Copper raised 2026 production guidance to 917,000 tonnes and expects 1.06M tonnes by 2029 as Tia Maria ramps.
Moderately positive bias for SCCO as investors re-rate the probability of Tia Maria delivering higher output on schedule.
The article provides specific updated production guidance (2026-2029) plus financing status and water-licence renewal, which can change expectations for future production and margins.
Market effects
Company-specific ramp at a major copper project can influence sentiment around near-to-midterm copper supply tightness and project execution risk.
Peru execution and policy uncertainty remain a key overhang, but the article cites renewed water licensing and no expected construction delays.
A projected slight global copper deficit and low exchange-inventory days can reinforce broader copper price support, indirectly benefiting miners.
Counterpoint
Even with guidance raised, Peru-related execution and policy risk could still delay Tia Maria, making the 2029 ramp path less certain.
Key entities
- companySouthern Copper
Raised 2026 production guidance and reiterated a 2029 output target above 1 million tonnes tied to Tia Maria ramp.
- projectTia Maria
Flagship Peru copper project with $1.1B committed, $693M invested, and water licence renewed; expected to drive output growth into 2029.
- projectLos Chancas
Development slowed by illegal mining, representing ongoing execution risk in Peru.
