Billionaire Investor Paul Singer’s Top 5 Picks: Are They a Buy Now?
A 13F by Elliott Investment Management, attributed to Paul Singer, lists five US long positions as of March 31, 2026. The article cites results and analyst views for TFPM, SU, PSX, LUV, and HPE, including TFPM up 90.1% since the filing, PSX above a $198 target, and HPE Q2 FY26 revenue up 40% with raised EPS guidance.
How this was made
The 30-second read
Why it matters
It provides quantified quarterly performance and, for HPE, an explicit guidance raise, which can affect near-term trading decisions. However, most of the actionable framing is recommendation-style (screens as Buy/Hold/Sell) rather than new corporate disclosures at publication time.
Market read
Traders may use the guidance raise (HPE) and the quantified cash-flow/margin/fuel datapoints to adjust near-term positioning, but the article is largely a 13F promotional framework.
What to watch
For HPE and TFPM, the key risks are guidance durability and commodity/AI demand cyclicality; for PSX and LUV, the risks are margin compression and fuel cost sensitivity, which the article only partially addresses with ranges.
Background
The piece is a 13F-based “top 5 picks” roundup attributed to Elliott Investment Management’s Paul Singer, using March 31, 2026 holdings as the reference point.
Ticker impact
Article highlights Triple Flag’s Q1 FY26 results with realized gold price jump and EPS beat, plus a modeled fair value implying upside.
Mild positive bias for momentum traders, but likely limited incremental impact versus already-known earnings/13F context.
The text provides concrete quarterly figures and a fair-value estimate, yet it is still packaged as a promotional 13F “cheat sheet” rather than a fresh, time-critical corporate event.
Suncor is described as having Q1 FY26 adjusted operating earnings and free cash flow surge, alongside a higher buyback pace target for 2026.
Moderately positive for value and income-oriented flows, with less likely upside surprise given the “screens as Hold” framing.
The piece includes quantified buyback pace and FCF growth, but it does not present a new disclosure beyond what is implied by the cited quarter and model.
Phillips 66 is framed as having Q1 EPS beat and buybacks/dividend raise, but the stock is said to have run above target with modeled negative-to-flat one-year returns.
Potential near-term downside bias for traders considering new longs at current levels.
The article includes specific Q1 metrics and a downside drawdown estimate, but it is still an analyst-model-driven recommendation rather than a new regulatory or deal catalyst.
Southwest’s Q1 FY26 turnaround is quantified with EPS, net income swing, RASM growth, and Rapid Rewards enrollment gains, plus Q2 fuel guidance range.
Slightly positive for holders, but likely limited incremental impact because the piece labels it a Hold and emphasizes the move already made.
While the numbers are concrete, the article does not clearly establish a newly released catalyst at publication time beyond the referenced quarter.
HPE is the title subject and is described as having Q2 FY26 guidance raised after a large beat, with stock up 90.1% since March 31.
Near-term positive bias for momentum, but with elevated risk of mean reversion given the large run-up and only modest stated base-case upside.
The article provides concrete Q2 results and an updated full-year EPS guidance range, which is actionable, but it is still presented as part of a promotional 13F roundup.
Market effects
Read-across to energy and industrial cash-flow narratives (buybacks, refining margins) and to AI infrastructure demand via HPE’s networking growth framing.
Primarily US-listed equities; limited direct regional spillover beyond US sentiment toward commodities and airlines.
Gold price sensitivity is highlighted via TFPM, linking the trade to global commodity repricing assumptions.
Counterpoint
The article’s “Buy/Sell” calls rely heavily on the author’s modeled fair values and scenario returns, which may not reflect near-term volatility, execution risk, or activist trade crowding after large price runs.
Key entities
- companyHewlett Packard Enterprise
Elliott-linked activist involvement is tied to a Q2 FY26 beat and raised full-year non-GAAP EPS guidance.
- companyTriple Flag Precious Metals
Gold streamer results are used to support a modeled upside case and a “Buy” screen.
- companyPhillips 66
Q1 beat and buyback/dividend actions are contrasted with modeled negative-to-flat one-year returns.
- companySuncor Energy
Q1 cash flow and buyback pace increase are used to justify a “Hold” with shareholder yield.
- companySouthwest Airlines
Turnaround metrics and Q2 fuel guidance range are used to support a “Hold” thesis after a large run.
