TC Energy increases demand outlook for natural gas amid data centre boom
TC Energy raised its forecast for North American natural gas demand growth, now expecting 51 bcf/d of growth from 2025 levels to 2035, up from 40 bcf/d in late 2024 and 46 bcf/d in February. It cited LNG exports, power generation and industrial demand. TC reported Q2 net income of $987m, 95 cents/share, and revenue of $3.96b.
How this was made
The 30-second read
Why it matters
The key tradable update is the step-up in demand growth expectations and the stated customer pull for additional pipeline space, alongside a near-term catalyst: a Crossroads project final investment decision expected in Q4.
Market read
TRP’s updated demand forecast and customer participation signals strengthen the case for higher future pipeline utilization, with traders likely to watch Q4 for Crossroads FID details.
What to watch
The article does not quantify incremental capex, contract terms, or regulatory/permitting timelines for expansions, which could affect the timing and risk-adjusted returns of the announced opportunities.
Background
TC Energy reported second-quarter results and used a conference call to update its natural gas demand outlook and discuss pipeline capacity response options.
Ticker impact
TC Energy raised its North American natural gas demand outlook to 51 bcf/d growth through 2035 and is exploring pipeline capacity expansion.
Moderately positive bias for TRP as the demand revisions and capacity participation reinforce utilization expectations, with additional upside if Crossroads expansion demand remains strong into Q4 FID.
The article provides a concrete demand forecast step-up (51 bcf/d vs prior 40 and 46) and specific customer pull signals (snapped-up capacity, record data-center participation, 2.5x interest in Crossroads expansion), which are directly tied to TRP’s pipeline volumes and capital planning.
Market effects
Reinforces the North American gas midstream demand narrative tied to LNG, gas power, and data centers, potentially supporting sentiment for pipeline operators with similar exposure.
Highlights demand concentration in the U.S. heartland, Alberta, and Mexico, implying regional utilization tailwinds for cross-border and intra-Alberta infrastructure.
Supports the broader LNG and gas-fired generation demand outlook, which can influence global gas pricing expectations and hedging behavior.
Counterpoint
Demand growth forecasts may not fully translate into contracted volumes or timely capacity additions, especially if data-center power and permitting constraints slow buildouts.
Key entities
- companyTC Energy Corp.
Raised North American natural gas demand outlook and discussed pipeline capacity expansion opportunities tied to data centers and LNG.
- projectCrossroads project
365-kilometre pipeline in Indiana and Ohio, with plans to expand by 1.5 bcf/d and a final investment decision expected in Q4.
- infrastructureGreater Edmonton Area intra-Alberta network
TC offered additional shipping services in March and reported that capacity was fully taken up; later offerings saw record data-center participation.
