Carvana Is Down 30% in 2026 While CarMax Is Up 50%. Should Investors Sell One and Buy the Other?
Carvana (CVNA) shares are down about 30% YTD in 2026 after below-consensus full-year adjusted EBITDA guidance, despite a record Q2 with $7.376B revenue and $769M adjusted EBITDA. CarMax (KMX) is up about 51% YTD on turnaround progress, including a Q1 FY2027 EPS beat and raised SG&A savings target. Analysts cut CVNA targets and upgraded KMX, with differing insider flows.
How this was made
The 30-second read
Why it matters
CVNA is penalized for below-consensus full-year EBITDA guidance despite a strong Q2, while KMX benefits from turnaround progress, analyst upgrades, and a recent earnings beat.
Market read
Traders may use the guidance-versus-execution divergence to position for near-term volatility in CVNA and a catalyst-driven continuation or mean reversion in KMX.
What to watch
Relative-value trades may ignore balance-sheet and financing sensitivity to used-car demand and wholesale pricing, which can dominate EBITDA outcomes beyond the guidance narrative.
Background
The article frames a relative-value debate between two used-car retailers after divergent YTD performance and guidance/turnaround signals.
Ticker impact
Carvana shares fell after full-year 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance midpoint ($2.70B-$3.00B) came in below consensus, despite a record Q2.
Near-term downside bias, with volatility into the next earnings window as traders reprice the EBITDA path.
The article cites below-consensus full-year EBITDA guidance and Q3 commentary lacking a specific unit figure, which typically drives multiple compression and sentiment shifts.
CarMax is up YTD on turnaround momentum, including a Q1 FY2027 EPS beat and analyst upgrades with higher price targets.
Moderate upside bias, but likely choppy as the stock is already above consensus targets and waits for the Sept. 29 results.
The article highlights a Q1 beat, raised SG&A savings target, and multiple analyst upgrades, but also notes limited upside versus the current price and upcoming scheduled catalysts.
Market effects
Used-car retail sentiment may bifurcate between growth/momentum stories and turnaround incumbents based on EBITDA guidance credibility.
Primarily US equity sentiment for consumer discretionary retail and auto-adjacent names.
Limited direct global spillover; mostly affects US-listed peers and relative-value positioning.
Counterpoint
The guidance reset for CVNA may be temporary and already discounted, while KMX’s rally could be vulnerable if pricing/sales trends fade before the next update.
Key entities
- companyCarvana
Down 30% YTD in 2026 after full-year adjusted EBITDA guidance midpoint below consensus; Q2 record quarter but outlook disappoints.
- companyCarMax
Up 51% YTD in 2026 on turnaround momentum, including a Q1 FY2027 EPS beat and raised SG&A savings target; analysts upgraded.
- executiveErnie Garcia
Carvana CEO quoted as describing the company as a small share of the US automotive market.
- executiveKeith Barr
CarMax CEO who started March 16, 2026 and is associated with turnaround execution and raised savings targets.
