Goldman Sachs raises alternative asset manager stock outlook on fee growth
Goldman Sachs said alternative asset manager stocks are still attractive for H2 despite YTD declines. In a note, it cited stabilized earnings, a 3% average rise in 2026-2027 fee-related revisions, and next-12-month P/D E multiples net of SBC averaging 19x (16% below five-year). It expects management fees to average about 15% growth, with TPG, STEP, CG, HLNE and KKR among the biggest upside candidates.
How this was made
The 30-second read
Why it matters
The actionable content is an analyst-driven outlook: stabilized earnings, record fundraising, and expected management-fee acceleration (with specific fastest growers) plus a conviction list for 12-month upside.
Market read
Traders may use the fee-growth and conviction-list framing to position for relative performance within alternative asset managers, but the article is not a new company-specific catalyst.
What to watch
The note does not quantify risks to fundraising flows, credit performance, or performance-fee volatility that can swing earnings for alternative managers.
Background
Goldman frames alternative asset manager stocks as attractive into 2H after YTD declines, citing stabilized earnings revisions and valuation discount versus history.
Ticker impact
Goldman expects NYSE:TPG to deliver the fastest management-fee growth (about 18% to 20%) from 2026 to 2028.
Mild positive bias for relative performance versus alternative asset managers, absent new company-specific filings.
The article is an outlook from Goldman with specific fee-growth and upside framing, but it is not a new TPG disclosure.
Goldman flags NASDAQ:STEP as among the fastest management-fee growers (18% to 20%) and cites it for share-price upside.
Potential near-term support for long positioning on relative strength versus the group.
The thesis is specific (fee growth and upside list), but it remains an analyst note rather than a fresh STEP event.
Goldman expects NYSE:ARES to post management-fee growth of about 18% to 20% from 2026 to 2028.
Moderately positive for ARES versus peers if the market buys the fee-growth narrative.
The article provides concrete fee-growth expectations but no new ARES operational or financial disclosure.
Goldman lists NYSE:CG among names with the most share-price upside over the next 12 months.
Support for a tactical long or relative-value view versus the sector.
The article does not provide CG-specific fundamentals beyond inclusion in the upside list.
Goldman includes NYSE:HLNE on its conviction list for the most share-price upside over the next 12 months.
Limited, note-driven positive bias; likely less impact than names with explicit fee-growth ranges.
HLNE is mentioned as part of a list without additional company-specific metrics.
Goldman cites NYSE:KKR as having meaningful potential for performance-related earnings acceleration into 2027.
Slight positive tilt for KKR relative to the group, driven by the sector thesis.
The article provides sector-level drivers and KKR inclusion, but no new KKR disclosure.
Market effects
Supports a sector-wide re-rating narrative for alternative asset managers based on stabilized earnings, record fundraising, and AI-financing exposure.
Primarily US-listed alternative asset managers; limited direct regional spillover beyond US financials sentiment.
AI-financing and capital markets revenue themes can influence global investor sentiment toward alternative managers, though the article is US-focused.
Counterpoint
Fee-growth expectations may already be priced in after the sector’s quarter-to-date rally, and deal activity recovery could disappoint.
Key entities
- analyst_firmGoldman Sachs
Provides a sector note with fee-growth expectations and a conviction list for alternative asset managers.
- sectorAlternative asset manager sector
Described as rallying quarter-to-date but still down year-to-date, with stabilized earnings revisions.
