Gold, Silver Pullback Is Not The End Of Rally, JPMorgan Reportedly Says After Forecast Cut
JPMorgan lowered its 2026 gold price forecast to $5,243/oz (from $5,708) but expects a year-end rise to $6,000/oz. It also cut silver forecasts, citing fading market tightness. Gold and silver prices fell, with gold at $4,530.33/oz and silver at $74.89/oz. The bank anticipates rebound in demand by year-end.
How this was made
The 30-second read
Why it matters
JPM’s reported forecast cut for 2026 average gold and increased caution on silver can shift trader expectations for the metals path, even if the bank still expects both to rise by year-end.
Market read
A major bank’s revised precious-metals demand and price assumptions can influence near-term positioning and ETF flow expectations.
What to watch
The article emphasizes demand forecasts but does not quantify how much of the pullback is driven by positioning, liquidity, or ETF flow dynamics versus macro fundamentals.
Background
Gold slipped to a more than one-month low and silver fell as oil rose on U.S.-Iran conflict concerns, pressuring inflation and rate expectations.
Ticker impact
JPMorgan reportedly cut its 2026 average gold forecast to $5,243/oz and turned more cautious on silver due to softer near-term demand.
Limited direct impact on JPM shares; more likely to affect gold and silver sentiment and related ETF flows.
The article attributes forecast changes to JPM, but the tradable effect is primarily on metals pricing and GLD/SLV sentiment rather than JPM fundamentals.
GLD is cited as down more than 13% since the U.S.-Iran conflict began, aligning with the article’s discussion of gold’s pullback.
Near-term bias remains cautious given the pullback, but the end-of-year rebound expectation can support dip-buying.
The article provides ETF performance context and a forecast, but does not disclose a new GLD-specific catalyst.
SLV is cited as down nearly 19% since the conflict started, while JPM expects silver’s extreme physical tightness to fade.
Expect choppier trading; rallies may face headwinds if physical tightness continues to ease.
The piece links SLV performance to broader silver market conditions and JPM’s outlook, but lacks a new SLV-specific event.
Market effects
Signals a potential rotation from momentum-driven safe-haven behavior back toward longer-term precious-metals fundamentals.
Primarily impacts global commodities and U.S.-listed precious-metals ETF sentiment.
JPM’s central bank and investor demand assumptions can influence cross-market positioning in gold and silver.
Counterpoint
Gold’s recent selloff could persist if real rates and oil-driven inflation fears remain elevated, overwhelming the ‘end-of-year rebound’ thesis.
Key entities
- companyJPMorgan Chase & Co.
Reportedly lowered its 2026 average gold forecast and expressed greater caution about silver.
- etfSPDR Gold Shares ETF
GLD is referenced as down more than 13% since the conflict began.
- etfiShares Silver Trust
SLV is referenced as down nearly 19% since the conflict began.
