Drone wars deepen West's critical minerals squeeze
Drones in the Russia-Ukraine war are driving demand for germanium, gallium, and rare earths, with China dominating supply. BMO estimates 15M drones deployed in 2024, with $150B committed to drone/counter-drone tech. Teck Resources, Rio Tinto, Neo Performance, MP Materials, and Aclara Resources are among companies involved in critical mineral production.
How this was made

The 30-second read
Why it matters
The article outlines several North American initiatives to develop domestic sources, which could reshape the critical‑mineral supply chain.
Market read
Critical‑mineral supply chain diversification is a high‑interest theme for investors in mining and technology sectors.
What to watch
Regulatory export controls and environmental permitting could delay project timelines.
Background
Rising drone usage in the Russia‑Ukraine war is driving demand for germanium, gallium and rare‑earth magnets, commodities dominated by China.
Ticker impact
Teck Resources signed a C$850 million agreement with Ottawa to expand germanium, gallium and antimony production at its Trail complex.
upside if market prices for germanium/gallium rise
Government-backed investment signals long‑term demand growth for critical minerals used in drones.
Rio Tinto announced plans for a gallium pilot plant in Saguenay, Quebec, targeting up to 40 tonnes per year.
moderate upside on gallium‑related demand outlook
Diversifies supply away from China, aligning with strategic‑metal trends.
MP Materials highlighted its Project Swarm initiative to supply rare‑earth magnets for the drone industry.
limited upside pending contract confirmations
Announcement is early‑stage; impact depends on customer uptake.
Market effects
Accelerates diversification of critical‑mineral supply for drones, reducing China concentration.
Boosts North American (Canada/US) exposure to germanium, gallium and heavy rare‑earths.
Adds new sources to a globally tight market, potentially stabilizing prices.
Counterpoint
If drone demand plateaus post‑conflict, new capacity could lead to oversupply and price declines.
Key entities
- AnalystBMO Capital Markets
Provided market estimates and highlighted the strategic importance of drone‑related minerals.
- PolicyCanadian Government
Potential off‑take rights and funding for Teck's Trail complex.




