$RIO

Rio Tinto reported a 2% year-on-year increase in global iron ore production to 89.7 million tons in Q3 2026, with sales up 3% to 90.8 million tons. Pilbara region production fell 1% to 83.4 million tons, but sales rose 2% to 85.7 million tons. Copper production remained flat at 205,000 tons, with full-year guidance maintained.

Rio Tinto's Q3 iron ore shipments rose 2% y/y to 83.90Mt, despite CMRG tensions, leaving annual guidance achievable. BHP posted record Q3 exports, while FMG's shipments fell 7% y/y due to CMRG disputes. Vale's Q3 exports dropped 7% y/y, raising guidance risk due to freight costs and demand pressures.

Copper prices fell for the third day due to US inflation data and easing supply concerns. Comex copper dropped 1.2% to $6.5810 per pound, while London copper fell 0.9% to $14,360 per tonne. Analysts cited profit-taking and technical deterioration. Antofagasta reported a 7% rise in Q3 production but lowered 2027 guidance, causing its stock to drop 6.4%. Other miners like Freeport-McMoRan and Southern Copper also declined.

Tech companies are engaging with miners like Anglo American to secure direct supply of critical metals such as copper for AI and data centers. Anglo's CEO, Duncan Wanblad, noted potential direct investments but highlighted the complexity of mining deals. Examples include Apple's $500M deal with MP Materials and Rio Tinto's collaboration with Amazon Web Services. Anglo is also navigating regulatory hurdles for its merger with Teck Resources and the sale of its Brazilian nickel business to MMG.

Rio Tinto has released over $2 billion in capital as part of a $5–10 billion program to focus on core assets like iron ore, copper, and lithium. The funds come from asset sales, partnerships, and infrastructure monetization. The company is also reviewing its borates and iron/titanium businesses for potential divestments. Investors will watch for successful execution and redeployment of proceeds into high-return projects.

Australia's S&P/ASX200 fell 0.43% to 8960.2, tracking a US tech sell-off after higher-than-expected inflation data. Tech and mining sectors dropped over 3% each. BHP and Rio Tinto fell 4% as iron ore prices declined. CommBank rose 2% leading financials higher. Treasury Wine Estates has no plans to list Penfolds separately. Bank of Queensland gained 4.6% on a strong update, while ARB and Droneshield fell.

Rio Tinto plc's average price target was reduced by analysts from GBX 7703.98 to GBX 7651.87, suggesting a 9% upside from the Oct. 13 closing price. The consensus rating is 'Buy' among 23 analysts, with 9 Buys, 12 Holds, and 2 Sells.

Rio Tinto announced that its Simandou iron-ore mine in Guinea reached a 10-million-tonne annualized production rate in Q3 2023, according to its production update. The company aims to achieve a 60-million-tonne annual rate by mid-2028. The mine is a joint venture with Chinese partners and Guinea's government, and its operations are crucial for linking Africa's mineral resources to China's green steel industry.

JPMorgan upgraded Glencore, Kumba Iron Ore, and Anglo American, citing strong earnings drivers and revised commodity forecasts. Glencore was upgraded to Overweight with a price target of 730 pence. Antofagasta is JPMorgan's top EMEA copper pick. The bank also upgraded gold miners Fresnillo and AngloGold Ashanti, expecting gold prices to reach $5,000/oz by Q4 2027.

Rio Tinto reported Q3 2026 production results: bauxite down 4% Y-o-Y, alumina up 10%, and aluminium steady. Full-year guidance remains unchanged. CEO highlighted operational improvements and decarbonisation progress. US tariffs impacted aluminium shipments and costs.