CCL Stock Traders Stare At Sixth Red Week: Analysts Predict Weak Outlook On High Fuel Prices Ahead Of Q3 Earnings

Carnival Corp (CCL) shares have dropped 27% since August due to rising oil prices. BofA cut its price target to $38 from $42, citing higher fuel costs. The bank reduced its Q4 EPS estimate to $0.20 from $0.27 and its 2027 estimate to $2.50 from $2.68. Despite this, BofA maintains a 'buy' rating, noting stable demand and positive spending data.

Carnival Corp (CCL) faces higher fuel costs and softer pricing, leading Jefferies to cut its earnings estimates. The broker reduced 2026 revenue and 2026-2027 EPS forecasts, citing unhedged fuel price exposure and lower revenue per passenger. Jefferies maintained a 'buy' rating but lowered its price target to $33 from $35.

Royal Caribbean (RCL) fell 5% after announcing a $3B deal for a 50% stake in Sandals and Beaches Resorts, at 10x forward EBITDA. Carnival (CCL) and Norwegian (NCLH) also dropped 3% each, extending their YTD declines of 28% and 38% respectively. The deal is debt-funded and expected to close early next year, with earnings accretion anticipated later.

Carnival's Q2 2026 net income rose 20% YoY to $569M, beating guidance. Full-year yield growth guidance was cut by 100 bps due to Middle East-related weakness. Cost discipline offset the yield cut, and EPS guidance was raised to $2.22. Free cash flow increased to $1.76B, and net debt/EBITDA improved to 3.1x. Operating and EBITDA margins were slightly below YoY levels.

Wells Fargo cut Carnival's (CCL) price target to $36 due to Caribbean pricing pressure. Norwegian (NCLH) fell 3% to $14.28, worse than Carnival's 2% drop, as it faces higher fuel costs and lower guidance. Royal Caribbean (RCL) declined 2% to $250.98. Norwegian's Q3 net yield is expected to decline 9%, and its 2026 EPS guidance was reduced to $1.50.

Carnival Corporation (CCL) expects over $7B in adjusted EBITDA by fiscal 2026, despite geopolitical and demand challenges. Q2 results met expectations, with record revenues and net income. Management reduced yield growth and occupancy outlooks but maintained cost discipline and fuel efficiency. Prolonged European yield pressure could impact earnings, but cost management supports the EBITDA outlook.