Is Delivery Update Altering The Investment Case For Li Auto (LI)?

12 listed automakers reported overseas sales accounting for over 35% of their totals, with Chery Automobile (09973.HK) at 70.3%. All missed annual targets, with completion rates below 67%. SAIC Motor (600104.SS) led sales, while BYD (002594.SZ) saw a 3.94% decline. Leapmotor (09863.HK) grew fastest, while Li Auto (02015.HK) underperformed. Industry faces price wars and overseas expansion challenges.

Li Auto's Hong Kong shares fell 4% to a record low of HK$43.02 after reporting a 6.3% year-on-year decline in September deliveries to 31,817 vehicles, despite launching new models. The company faces stiff competition and slowing domestic demand, prompting expansion into foreign markets. The broader Hong Kong market also declined.

Li Auto (HKEX:2015) is spinning off its Mach M100 chip business, which produces a 5nm chip with 1,280 TOPS. The company is seeking external customers for its automotive chips, silicon-carbide modules, and range extenders. Its 70%-owned silicon-carbide unit is also seeking external funding and preparing for a potential IPO.

Li Auto launched the Li i9, a battery electric SUV priced at RMB 369,800. The company aims to shift from extended-range vehicles to pure BEVs, with deliveries beginning in September 2026. Analysts project CN¥169.2b in revenue and CN¥7.6b in earnings by 2029, assuming 15.6% yearly growth. Key risks include competition, discounting, and weak BEV uptake.

Li Auto confirmed it will supply self-developed chips and silicon carbide modules externally, joining NIO, XPeng, and Leapmotor in technology outsourcing. Li Auto aims to target AI companies, while XPeng's partnership with Volkswagen has boosted its revenue. NIO has spun off its chip business and transferred battery-swap assets. Leapmotor focuses on exporting vehicle architectures and components.

Li Auto is seeking external funding for its chip subsidiary at a $2.2 billion pre-money valuation, according to LatePost. The automaker aims to raise several billion yuan, valuing its chip business above Nio's rival unit. Li Auto's chip team, with about 200 employees, is developing vehicle-side and cloud-side inference chips. The company reported a loss of $593 million in the first half of 2023, with vehicle margins falling to 9.4%.