Analysts praise Shell's Q3 outlook for record refining margins, higher gas production (SHEL:NYSE)

Shell anticipates record refining margins of $42 per barrel for Q3, up from $24 in Q2, due to Middle East conflict-driven fuel supply disruptions. The oil major also raised its integrated gas production forecast and completed a $16.4B acquisition of ARC Resources. Shell's shares rose 0.3% amid broader market declines in European energy stocks.

Shell reported record refining margins of $42/barrel in Q3, up from $24 in Q2, due to supply disruptions. Refining utilization was 97%. Shares rose 1% on Oct 7. Full earnings are due Oct 29.

Shell plc revised its production guidance for Q3 2026, expecting higher integrated Gas production (740-780 kboe/d) and LNG liquefaction volumes (7.2-7.6 MT) than previously forecast. Upstream production is now projected at 1,735-1,835 kboe/d, while marketing sales volumes and refinery utilization were also adjusted.

Shell plc anticipates a ~$2.5B cash outflow in Q3 2026 due to emissions certificate payments under the German BEHG. The company also expects lower marketing earnings, exploration well write-offs of ~$0.3B, and impacts on net debt from the ARC acquisition. Q3 results are set to be published on 29 October 2026.

Shell (NYSE:SHEL) raised its Q3 2026 outlook due to higher fuel demand and elevated crude oil prices. Brent crude averaged $104/barrel. Shell increased its Integrated Gas production forecast to 740,000–780,000 boe/d and Upstream production to 1.735–1.835 million boe/d. Q3 refining margin is projected at $42/barrel. Analysts expect Q3 EPS of $1.40 and revenue of $87.84 billion. Shell trades at a P/E of 10.8x.

Shell reported a 75% increase in refining margins to $42 per barrel in Q3, a record high. The surge is attributed to supply disruptions from Middle East and Ukraine wars. Shell's shares rose 0.6% in London. Kathleen Brooks of XTB noted unprecedented widening of refining spreads. (Shell)