Merck's Experimental Eye Drug Shows Promise Amid Safety Concerns

Jefferies reduced its peak sales forecast for Merck's experimental eye treatment remigromig by 60% to $300M after trial results showed concerns about efficacy and safety compared to Lucentis. The drug met non-inferiority thresholds but showed smaller vision improvements and higher safety risks. Jefferies lowered its price target for Merck to $176 but maintained a buy rating.

RBC Capital reduced its price target for Merck (NYSE:MRK) to $145 from $150, citing lower 2027 earnings expectations. The firm's 2026 estimates align with consensus, but it forecasts slower 2027 revenue growth. Other analysts have mixed views, with Guggenheim maintaining a Buy rating and Cantor Fitzgerald raising its target. Merck also faces legal challenges and pipeline updates.

Merck reported one-year trial results for Remigromig, showing it met primary endpoints by demonstrating noninferiority to Ranibizumab in improving visual acuity. The drug had a higher incidence of adverse events related to proliferative diabetic retinopathy, which the company said were manageable and could reflect disease progression. Additional analyses are ongoing.

Merck and Moderna's personalized mRNA melanoma vaccine, intismeran autogene, met phase 3 trial endpoints. Production challenges include scaling tiny batches and cost. Moderna's facility began clinical supply in 2025, targeting 6-8 weeks from biopsy to dose. Provenge's high manufacturing cost led to bankruptcy, serving as a cautionary tale. Standalone personalized vaccines show mixed results, with a recent trial halted due to survival imbalance.

Merck's (MSD) immuno-cancer drug Keytruda Curex, using Alteogen's subcutaneous technology, saw a 34% U.S. prescription increase in September, with subcutaneous injections making up 15.7% of total prescriptions. U.S. sales reached $324 million, up from $241 million in August. Alteogen stands to gain from sales milestones and royalties, but a European patent dispute may impact future revenue.

Merck (MRK) reported positive one-year data from its Phase 2b/3 Brunello trial for remigromig, a novel antibody therapy for diabetic macular edema. The treatment met the primary endpoint of non-inferiority in visual acuity improvement compared to the standard treatment. Merck's dividend yield stands at 2.37% with a payout ratio of 1.11, and the stock is modestly overvalued by 20.4% relative to its GF Value of $120.93.