Jefferies cuts Merck’s remigromig sales forecast after eye-disease trial raises concerns
Jefferies reduced its peak sales forecast for Merck's experimental eye treatment remigromig by 60% to $300M after trial results showed concerns about efficacy and safety compared to Lucentis. The drug met non-inferiority thresholds but showed smaller vision improvements and higher safety risks. Jefferies lowered its price target for Merck to $176 but maintained a buy rating.
How this was made
The 30-second read
Why it matters
The forecast cut is driven by comparative efficacy underperformance versus Lucentis and a safety signal (higher proliferative diabetic retinopathy and treatment-related discontinuations).
Market read
This is a pipeline risk repricing for Merck’s retina franchise, with near-term sentiment tied to remigromig and medium-term focus shifting to BAROLO.
What to watch
The article notes Merck did not report separate efficacy by prior anti-VEGF exposure, so subgroup uncertainty could cut both ways; BAROLO results are still a key future catalyst.
Background
Jefferies revises its remigromig commercial outlook after BRUNELLO phase two and phase three trial data in diabetic macular oedema.
Ticker impact
Jefferies cut Merck’s remigromig peak sales forecast by 60% after BRUNELLO trial results showed smaller vision gains and higher safety events vs Lucentis.
Likely downward pressure as investors price in reduced efficacy and higher discontinuation/proliferative diabetic retinopathy risk for remigromig.
The article cites specific comparative efficacy shortfalls (letters gained, retinal thickness) and safety differentials (6.1% to 6.7% vs 0.9%, discontinuations 4.5% to 4.9% vs 0.9%) that directly drive the forecast cut.
Market effects
Reinforces competitive intensity in diabetic macular oedema and may raise scrutiny on next-gen ophthalmology efficacy and safety tradeoffs.
Primarily US pharma sentiment, with potential spillover to ophthalmology peers’ trial-readiness expectations.
Limited beyond global ophthalmology trial benchmarking and investor appetite for retina pipeline risk.
Counterpoint
Merck could still carve out a niche in patients who do not respond adequately to existing treatments, and the company says safety issues were generally manageable.
Key entities
- companyMerck & Co Inc
US pharmaceutical company whose experimental eye treatment remigromig is assessed in the BRUNELLO trial and whose sales forecast was cut by Jefferies.
- drugremigromig
Merck’s experimental eye treatment evaluated against Lucentis in BRUNELLO.
- drugLucentis
Established rival treatment used as the comparator in the trial.
- clinical_trialBRUNELLO study
Phase two and phase three trial referenced for remigromig efficacy and safety outcomes.
- clinical_trialBAROLO trial
Merck’s separate diabetic macular oedema trial with results expected in March 2027.
