IMF raises UK growth forecast in boost for chancellor - business live
The IMF raised its UK GDP growth forecast to 1.3% for 2026, up from 1.0%, but expects a slight slowdown to 1.2% in 2027 due to higher energy prices. The UK's core inflation is not expected to reach 2% until late 2027. Kingfisher (KGF) appointed Sebastian Gundel as its new CEO, effective February 2027.
How this was made

The 30-second read
Why it matters
The upgrade may boost UK gilt prices and equity sentiment, but the modest magnitude limits trading opportunities.
Market read
Primary macro news for UK markets; limited direct trade signals for US‑listed securities.
What to watch
The forecast does not address fiscal constraints or upcoming budget decisions that could offset the positive outlook.
Background
The IMF's World Economic Outlook revision raises UK 2026 growth to 1.3% and slightly lowers 2027 expectations amid higher energy prices.
Market effects
UK sovereign bond yields may ease as growth outlook improves, supporting fixed‑income sector.
UK equities could see modest upside on the news, while broader European markets may benefit from reduced risk perception.
The IMF upgrade may lift risk sentiment globally, but impact is limited to markets with UK exposure.
Counterpoint
Higher growth forecasts could be premature if energy price volatility persists, potentially leading to a sell‑off.
Key entities
- InstitutionInternational Monetary Fund
Provides the growth forecast upgrade for the UK.
- GovernmentUK Government
Will face the IMF outlook ahead of the upcoming budget.



