$TTE

A global diesel shortage is driving record profits for oil refiners. TotalEnergies reported a $1.8B increase in refining income, while US refiners like Marathon Petroleum, Valero Energy, and Phillips 66 saw valuation gains. Shell expects refining margins to reach $42 per barrel. The International Energy Agency warns of persistent shortages and potential economic impacts.

Mizuho raised its price target for TotalEnergies (TTE) to $108 from $103, maintaining an Outperform rating. The firm anticipates a strong Q3 report, with adjusted EPS forecast 3% above consensus, driven by downstream margins and LNG trading rebound, despite lower oil prices.

The Cameroonian government increased its stake in Sonara to 98.09% from 81.95% through recapitalization, reducing TotalEnergies' stake to 0.42%. The government now owns 3,154,660 of 3,216,058 shares. Minority shareholders' combined stake fell to 1.91% from 18.05%. The recapitalization involved a CFA381.12 billion share issue reserved for the government, offsetting claims against Sonara.

INPEX, TotalEnergies, and Woodside Energy advanced the Bonaparte CCS project in Australia after the government approved an offshore storage site. The project, targeting CO2 injection in the early 2030s, aims to reduce emissions from the Ichthys LNG project by 40%. INPEX operates the joint venture with 53% stake, while TotalEnergies holds 26% and Woodside 21%.

South Africa rejected environmental appeals against TotalEnergies' offshore exploration in Block 3B/4B, allowing drilling of up to five wells. The decision added conditions to address food security and coastal community concerns. TotalEnergies welcomed the ruling, while Greenpeace Africa criticized it. Legal challenges may still follow.

TotalEnergies (TTE) reported Q3 refining margins of ~$33.20/bbl and LNG prices averaging $12.28/MMBtu, up 20% QoQ. The company guided Q3 2026 hydrocarbon output to 2.45–2.50 mln boe/d. Analysts have mixed views, with some raising targets and others cutting to Neutral. TTE will join Angola's 25-year hydrocarbon plan.

RBC predicts TotalEnergies' cash flow will remain stable, potentially reducing its gearing below 10% before Q3 results. This follows an update suggesting a $3 billion working capital release.

Brian Sullivan reports that the real cost of oil is higher than futures prices due to increased shipping costs. Shell (SHEL) reached a new high, with analysts bullish on its LNG business. RBC highlights ConocoPhillips (COP) as a top global stock idea. Morgan Stanley is optimistic about refiners like ExxonMobil (XOM), Valero (VLO), Phillips 66 (PSX), and PBF (PBF). Truist upgrades First Solar (FSLR) to Buy with a $270 target.

TotalEnergies aims to speed up the 13.1 million ton per year Phase 2 expansion of its Mozambique LNG project, according to the company's country chair. The project is currently under construction.

International oil companies (IOCs) operating in South Africa have urged the government to streamline regulations and expedite licensing to boost upstream investment. TotalEnergies, bp, ADNOC, ExxonMobil, and others highlighted regulatory delays and policy uncertainty as obstacles. South Africa's Deputy Minister of Mineral and Petroleum Resources committed to improving regulatory frameworks. SANPC estimates significant undeveloped oil and gas resources.