HSBC sees higher chance of more rate hikes after India’s CPI inflation jumps to 5.5%
India's retail inflation rose to 5.5% in September, up from 4.8% in August, according to HSBC. The bank expects CPI to average 6% in Q4 2026 and forecasts a 25 basis point rate hike in December, with a risk of another hike later. HSBC notes inflation is spreading across the basket, with food prices being the main driver. If inflation remains elevated, the Reserve Bank of India may implement further rate hikes, potentially supporting the rupee.
How this was made

The 30-second read
Why it matters
The data suggests a higher probability of RBI rate hikes, which could affect emerging‑market assets and the rupee.
Market read
India CPI data may influence emerging‑market equities and currency markets; limited direct impact on HSBC stock.
What to watch
El Niño weather impacts and LPG price changes could further influence food inflation.
Background
HSBC's analysis of India's September CPI and its implications for RBI policy.
Ticker impact
HSBC is the subject as it provided the India CPI outlook and rate‑hike expectations.
neutral
The article reports HSBC's view only; no new corporate action or earnings data for HSBC.
Market effects
India inflation data may affect emerging‑market exposure and commodity‑linked equities.
Higher CPI could pressure the Indian rupee and impact Asian markets.
Limited; primarily relevant to investors tracking emerging‑market inflation trends.
Counterpoint
The CPI rise may be temporary; rate hikes could be delayed if core inflation eases.
Key entities
- companyHSBC
Global bank providing the inflation outlook.
- institutionReserve Bank of India
India's central bank likely to consider rate hikes.


