Rio Tinto plc Stock 12‑Month Price Target Cut to GBX 7651.87, Implies 9% Upside

Rio Tinto's Q3 iron ore shipments rose 2% y/y to 83.90Mt, despite CMRG tensions, leaving annual guidance achievable. BHP posted record Q3 exports, while FMG's shipments fell 7% y/y due to CMRG disputes. Vale's Q3 exports dropped 7% y/y, raising guidance risk due to freight costs and demand pressures.

Copper prices fell for the third day due to US inflation data and easing supply concerns. Comex copper dropped 1.2% to $6.5810 per pound, while London copper fell 0.9% to $14,360 per tonne. Analysts cited profit-taking and technical deterioration. Antofagasta reported a 7% rise in Q3 production but lowered 2027 guidance, causing its stock to drop 6.4%. Other miners like Freeport-McMoRan and Southern Copper also declined.

Rio Tinto reported a 3% year-on-year increase in global iron ore sales to 90.8 Mt in Q3 2026. Simandou's output reached a 10 Mtpa annualised rate. Full-year guidance remains unchanged. Pilbara shipments rose 2% year-on-year, while IOC's production increased 30% quarter-on-quarter. The company expects first ore through the SimFer port in Q4. Iron ore prices declined in Q3, with the 61% Fe index averaging $97/dmt, down 8% quarter-on-quarter.

Rio Tinto reported a 3% year-on-year increase in global iron ore sales to 90.8 million tons and a 2% rise in production to 89.7 million tons in Q3 2026. Pilbara shipments were 85.7 million tons, while Simandou output surged 273% quarter-on-quarter to 2.5 million tons. The company maintained its 2026 sales guidance of 343-366 million tons.

Rio Tinto has released over $2 billion in capital as part of a $5–10 billion program to focus on core assets like iron ore, copper, and lithium. The funds come from asset sales, partnerships, and infrastructure monetization. The company is also reviewing its borates and iron/titanium businesses for potential divestments. Investors will watch for successful execution and redeployment of proceeds into high-return projects.

Australia's S&P/ASX200 fell 0.43% to 8960.2, tracking a US tech sell-off after higher-than-expected inflation data. Tech and mining sectors dropped over 3% each. BHP and Rio Tinto fell 4% as iron ore prices declined. CommBank rose 2% leading financials higher. Treasury Wine Estates has no plans to list Penfolds separately. Bank of Queensland gained 4.6% on a strong update, while ARB and Droneshield fell.