U.S. producer prices rise by 1.3% month-on-month in September

U.S. toy prices rose 4.2% in September 2026, up 6.6% year-on-year, due to tariffs and Iran war-related shipping costs. Mattel (up 10%) and Hasbro (up 15%) reported strong sales growth despite these headwinds. The Trump administration has not set an end date for tariffs or the war.

U.S. stocks rose on Oct. 15, with the Dow up 1.08%, S&P 500 up 0.33%, and Nasdaq up 0.08%. September's PPI increased 1.3% month-over-month and 6.3% year-over-year, exceeding expectations. CoreWeave (CRWV) rebounded 5.94%, while Rocket Lab (RKLB) fell 6.6% after delaying its Neutron rocket launch.

September CPI rose 0.6% month-over-month, above consensus, driven by energy prices. Retail sales increased 0.8%, partly due to higher gasoline costs. Bitcoin and digital assets fell as higher expected rates increased opportunity costs. Markets price in rising rate hike expectations, with Polymarket indicating a 25% chance of a 25bp increase in October. Investors are advised to manage digital asset exposure cautiously.

MSCI plans to remove Indonesia from its global emerging market indexes due to market dysfunction, citing insufficient progress in reforms. The announcement caused Indonesia's stock index to drop 11% and the rupiah to weaken. MSCI proposed a downgrade to 'standalone' status, which could trigger $4 billion in passive outflows and up to $15 billion in total outflows. The Indonesian government expressed surprise and plans to seek clarification.

US September producer prices rose 1.3% month-over-month and 6.3% year-over-year, higher than consumer prices. This increased expectations of a Fed rate hike on October 28, affecting Bitcoin's price, which fell to $79,806 before recovering to $82,266. Bitcoin liquidations totaled $948.22 million in 24 hours, with long positions accounting for 90.6% of closures.

Indonesia's stock market fell 8% after MSCI proposed downgrading the country from emerging-market to standalone status, citing transparency concerns. The Jakarta Composite Index has lost over 30% year-to-date. MSCI's proposal could lead to foreign capital outflows and is subject to a consultation period ending April 30, 2027.