Hershey beats top-line and bottom-line estimates; updates FY26 outlook

TD Cowen downgraded Hershey to Hold from Buy, lowering its price target to $173 from $198. This implies a 4.5% upside from the Oct 30 close of $165.61. Recent analyst price targets for Hershey range from $160 to $200.

Hershey reported a 5% decline in convenience store candy sales in September and October, attributing it to high gas prices and inflation. Net sales rose 3% to $3.28B, driven by price increases, while volume fell. The company narrowed its full-year organic net sales growth outlook to 3%. Cocoa prices have fluctuated, but candy prices remain high due to other cost factors.

Halloween spending is expected to reach $13.5B, up from last year, despite higher candy and pumpkin prices due to inflation and weather disruptions. Hershey lowered its 2026 sales growth forecast to 3%, citing consumer and cost pressures. Analysts have cut price targets, with consensus 2027 EPS estimates at $9.49.

Hershey's Q3 report shows North American confectionery sales volume down 11% YoY, but revenue up 1.6% to $2.66B. Prices rose 71% since 2021, with consumers cutting back. Total revenue was $3.28B, up 3% YoY. Higher cocoa costs and consumer price sensitivity were noted.

Wells Fargo reduced its Hershey (HSY) price target to $160 from $170, citing lower 2027 earnings estimates. The stock trades near its 52-week low. Hershey's Q3 2026 earnings beat expectations but showed volume declines and softer pricing. Goldman Sachs and TD Cowen also adjusted targets and ratings downward.

TD Cowen downgraded Hershey (HSY) to Hold, lowering its price target to $173. The firm cited weaker sales trends, market share losses, and volume declines. Hershey's Q3 organic sales rose 0.8%, but volume fell 10%. The stock trades near its 52-week low, down 33% from its high. Hershey expects negative volume trends to persist in 2027 but forecasts gross margin expansion. Q3 adjusted earnings beat estimates at $2.64 per share, with revenue at $3.28 billion.