$LII

U.S. 10-year Treasury yields hit 5%, highest since 2007, ahead of Fed decision with 90% chance of a 25-basis-point hike. Investing.com's Mid-Cap Movers strategy gained 580.7% since 2013, outperforming S&P MidCap 400. Top performers include Commvault (CVLT, +8.5%), Insight Enterprises (NSIT, +5.0%), and Wingstop (WING, +4.7%). Lennox International (LII) downgraded to Hold, Amgen (AMGN) FDA approval for Imdelltra.

AAON (NYSE:AOS) beat analyst estimates and reported fastest revenue growth among HVAC peers, but its stock is down 19.2%. Lennox (NYSE:LII) missed revenue expectations, with stock down 29.4%. Trane Technologies (NYSE:TT) and Zurn Elkay (NYSE:ZWS) both exceeded revenue estimates, but their stocks are down 1.5% and 7.7% respectively. Market focus has shifted from AI to geopolitics and back to fundamentals.

Lennox International (LII) management discussed commercial-led growth, margin improvement, and strategic investments in heat pumps, parts, and distribution, citing operational gains and targeted acquisitions. The company said residential recovery is delayed to 2027 due to repair activity deferring replacement demand, while maintaining long-term confidence.

Lennox (LII) Q2 2026 call said residential demand remains challenging, with revenue down 7% YoY due to a 12% unit-volume decline, partially offset by mix and pricing (+3%) and acquisitions (+2%). Building Climate Solutions revenue rose 24% (organic +12%). Management cut earnings outlook and expects recovery benefits into 2027; it reported 92% TTM free-cash conversion and repurchased about $130M shares.

The article says Q2 commercial HVAC results were supported by data center cooling demand and energy-efficiency tailwinds, with US-listed peers Carrier (CARR), Johnson Controls (JCI), and Trane (TT) citing high-single-digit to low-double-digit sales growth and higher fiscal 2026 guidance. It also covers residential HVAC weakness and guidance changes at Carrier, Trane, Lennox (LII), and Watsco (WSO).

Lennox CEO Alok Maskara said Q2 residential HVAC demand was constrained by elevated mortgage rates, inflation, low consumer confidence, affordability pressures, and weather variability. Lennox expects recovery to extend into 2027. Residential new construction revenues fell about 30% as the firm exited low-margin RNC. Replacement held up, pricing added 3%, and full-year revenue growth guidance remains ~8%.

Lennox International (NYSE: LII) shares fell about 19.9% after Q2 results. The company reported EPS of $7.72 vs. $7.61 expected, but revenue missed at about $1.5B vs. nearly $1.6B. Lennox cited continued softness in residential HVAC demand, with residential volumes down 7%. It lowered its 2026 EPS outlook to $23-$24 vs. $24.52 expected.

U.S. stock index futures rose before the open as Microsoft (MSFT) gained about 8% after reporting faster cloud revenue growth in FQ4 and signaling continued acceleration while holding capital spending. Investors also awaited core PCE inflation, Q2 GDP, jobless claims, and major megacap earnings, including Apple (AAPL) and Amazon (AMZN).

Sep WTI crude oil prices (CLU26) jumped by more than +6% on Wednesday as the recent lull in hostilities came to an abrupt end after the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said it targeted a US airbase and command center in Jordan with ballistic missiles. The IRGC also claimed to have hit and halted three tankers attempting to transit through the Strait of Hormuz.

US MBA mortgage applications fell -6.4% in the week ended July 24, with the purchase mortgage sub-index down -3.6% and the refinancing mortgage sub-index down -9.9%. The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage rose +7 bp to an 11.5-month high of 6.76% from 6.69% the prior week. The outlook for strong Q2 earnings, which continue this week, is a bullish factor for stocks.