TotalEnergies forecasts sharply higher Q3 refining margins and cash flow

TotalEnergies released its preliminary Q3 2026 outlook, showing the European refining margin marker at $33.2 per barrel, roughly four times the level a year earlier. The company said refining and chemicals cash flow should increase by about $2 billion versus the prior quarter. Hydrocarbon output is projected at 2.45‑2.50 million barrels of oil equivalent per day, and average LNG prices are expected to be 20% higher than in Q2. Full results are slated for October 29.

The company indicated that the margin and cash‑flow lift could translate into a materially stronger Q3 earnings report. Investors may see higher profitability and cash generation for the quarter.

  • 1The European refining margin marker is estimated at $33.2 per barrel for Q3 2026.
  • 2Brent crude price is projected at $97.0 per barrel.
  • 3TTF gas price is projected at $21.5 per million British thermal units.
  • 4Refining and chemicals cash flow is expected to rise by roughly $2 billion compared with Q2.
  • 5Hydrocarbon production is forecast at 2.45‑2.50 million barrels of oil equivalent per day.
  • 6Average LNG price is anticipated to be 20% higher than in the prior quarter.

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