Haywood cuts gold forecasts but miners attractive
Haywood Securities cut its 2026 gold forecast to $4,345/oz from $4,906 and 2027 to $4,000 from $5,000, and lowered 2026 silver to $67.11/oz from $73.40 after a weaker Q2. It remains constructive on gold equities, citing valuation and M&A. It named Equinox Gold (EQX) top pick and raised First Mining (FF) to $1.75 after Springpole approval, plus earnings cash-flow estimates for several miners.
How this was made
The 30-second read
Why it matters
The newest actionable elements are (1) the revised 2026-27 gold and 2026 silver forecasts, (2) company-specific target price changes tied to permitting (FF) and (3) detailed M&A and milestone timelines (EQX-Orla, Troilus permits).
Market read
Traders can use the forecast cuts to gauge sector multiple pressure, while using FF’s permitting-driven PT raise and EQX-Orla merger details for relative-value positioning into earnings.
What to watch
The article does not quantify how much each target price changed versus prior notes, so traders may overreact to PT direction without knowing the size of revisions.
Background
Haywood cut near-term gold and silver forecasts after a weaker Q2, while arguing the pullback creates an entry point into precious-metals equities.
Ticker impact
Haywood cut its gold price deck and still named Equinox Gold its top producer pick, citing the pending EQX-Orla merger output ramp.
Near-term bias modestly positive versus peers, with sensitivity to any further gold-price downgrades.
The article is an analyst note with explicit forecast cuts and a specific merger thesis, but it does not provide a new EQX-specific financial print.
Haywood highlighted the pending merger with Orla Mining, projecting a North America-focused producer and production growth toward 2 million oz by 2031.
Potentially supportive for ORLA on merger expectations, but likely capped by commodity-price sensitivity.
The merger details are concrete and trader-relevant, yet the note is not a new deal announcement and includes no ORLA-specific earnings datapoint.
Haywood’s revised gold outlook prompted lower target prices for Alamos Gold, alongside other producers.
Mild downside bias for AGI versus peers if the market focuses on PT reductions.
The article explicitly notes PT cuts for AGI, but does not provide a new AGI event like earnings results or guidance.
Haywood’s revised gold price outlook led to lower target prices for Amex Gold Mining.
Limited trading edge unless PT changes are large and widely adopted by the market.
The article mentions the PT cut without detailing magnitude or a new AMX-specific catalyst.
Haywood projected adjusted cash flow per share of US4¢ for Contango Silver & Gold for the upcoming second-quarter earnings.
Low incremental impact unless traders use it to reprice consensus into the print.
This is forecast data, not a new disclosure from CTGO.
Haywood projected earnings per share of 7¢ for B2Gold for the coming second-quarter earnings.
Low incremental trading value absent a stated revision or surprise expectation.
The article provides a forecast but does not disclose a new BTO event or guidance change.
Market effects
Lower gold and silver price assumptions can pressure miner valuation multiples, but the note offsets with M&A and permitting-driven stock selection.
Canada-focused developers and producers get specific attention, potentially influencing TSX/TSXV sentiment into earnings.
Gold price forecast cuts reflect macro drivers (yields, USD) that can transmit to global precious-metals risk appetite.
Counterpoint
If gold’s macro headwinds persist, analyst PT cuts may dominate the stock-picking narrative, making permitting and M&A theses less supportive near-term.
Key entities
- brokerageHaywood Securities
Vancouver-based brokerage issuing revised precious-metals forecasts and miner stock picks.
- companyEquinox Gold
Named top producer pick; discussed in the pending merger with Orla Mining.
- companyOrla Mining
Pending merger partner with Equinox Gold, with projected output growth.
- companyFirst Mining Gold
Target price raised after federal environmental approval for Springpole.
- companyTroilus Mining
Developer pick with permitting and feasibility milestones toward construction decision.
