Fertilizer stocks tumble after Trump signals Belarus potash deal

Mosaic Biosciences, a unit of The Mosaic Company (MOS), launched Renuvis Enzara, an enzyme-based treatment for crop residue. MOS reported a Q2 net loss of $273M, reversing from a $411M profit in 2025. The company cut its 2026 capex outlook to $1.2B and sold a potash mine. Phosphate segment losses widened, while Potash remained stable. Shares trade at a forward P/E of 15.92.

Intrepid Potash (IPI) reported Q2 results with Trio segment driving growth, reducing COGS to $205/ton, and raising full-year production guidance. Potash segment saw a 14% sales volume decline. The company has a strong balance sheet, expanded share buyback, and a one-time gain from asset sale. Hedge fund ownership declined, but short interest remains low.

CF Industries, JERA, and Mitsui launched a $3.7B low-carbon ammonia plant in Louisiana, with a 1.4M metric ton capacity. Operational by 2029, it will use ATR technology and capture 98% of CO2. CF Industries leads with 40% investment, while Linde and a 1PointFive-Enbridge JV also contribute. The plant aims to support agricultural and energy needs, creating jobs and boosting U.S. export capacity.

Nutrien Ltd.'s shares have risen 17.2% in the past month, outperforming the Zacks Fertilizers industry. The company reported strong fertilizer market fundamentals, higher potash and nitrogen prices, and improved cost efficiency. Nutrien raised its potash sales guidance to 14.2-14.8 million tons for the year, with record first-half sales of 7.45 million tons. The company also expects sustained demand for nitrogen and proprietary product growth, with adjusted EBITDA guidance of $1.75-$1.95 billion

Rainbow Rare Earths (RBW) and Mosaic (MOS) started a Pre-Feasibility Study for the Uberaba rare earths project in Brazil. SRK Consulting will prepare a JORC-compliant Mineral Resource Estimate. Mosaic will ship 6 tonnes of phosphogypsum for testing. The study aims to build a processing plant for 2.7M tonnes/year of phosphogypsum waste, producing rare earth oxides. An Economic Assessment in March showed a post-tax NPV10 of $916M, IRR of 45%, and average EBITDA of $217M/year over 30 years.

Nutrien Ltd. (NTR) reports record potash volumes and higher fertilizer prices, driving a 36.8% stock gain over a year. The company benefits from strong nitrogen fundamentals and proprietary product growth, but faces challenges from elevated sulfur costs and constrained nitrogen volumes. Management raised potash sales guidance and lowered capital expenditure forecasts. NTR's Retail business sees higher margins, but weaker crop nutrient volumes limit earnings growth. The stock is rated 'Hold' by Z