Hyundai expected to outsell Ford in third quarter as Detroit automakers lack hybrids
Hyundai Motor is projected to outsell Ford Motor in Q3 2023, with expected sales of 511,421 units, a 6.5% YoY increase, while Ford is expected to decline 7.1% to 504,172 units. This shift is attributed to Hyundai's strong product lineup and Ford's production issues. Toyota is also narrowing its sales gap with GM, potentially overtaking it this year. Cox Automotive raised its 2026 U.S. vehicle sales forecast to 16.1 million units.
How this was made
The 30-second read
Why it matters
The forecast reshapes expectations for the major U.S. automakers, suggesting a shift in market share dynamics.
Market read
The new sales outlook could drive short‑term trading ideas across the listed auto manufacturers.
What to watch
Potential supply chain disruptions and fuel price volatility could alter the projected sales.
Background
Cox Automotive released its Q3 2026 U.S. vehicle sales forecast, highlighting a rare ranking change between Hyundai and Ford.
Ticker impact
Cox predicts Ford Q3 U.S. sales will decline 7.1% to 504,172 units, falling behind Hyundai.
moderate downside
Sales decline is a fresh negative outlook.
Cox expects GM Q3 U.S. sales to fall 5.2% to 671,706 units, still ahead of Ford but behind Hyundai.
limited movement
Forecast shows decline but GM retains lead.
Cox forecasts Toyota Q3 U.S. sales to rise 2.2% to 642,707 units, narrowing gap with GM.
moderate upside
Sales growth beats broader market trend.
Cox projects Stellantis Q3 U.S. sales to decline 1.3%, with annual sales up 2.8% after turnaround plan.
small downside
Modest decline offset by annual growth expectations.
Market effects
U.S. auto sector outlook adjusts as Hyundai gains share; hybrid shortage pressures Detroit OEMs.
U.S. vehicle sales forecast influences domestic manufacturers and suppliers.
Shift in U.S. sales rankings may affect global auto supply chains and investor sentiment.
Counterpoint
Hyundai's forecast may be overly optimistic if hybrid demand continues to favor competitors.
Key entities
- Analyst FirmCox Automotive
Provider of the sales forecast data.
