GM, Ford to lose share as Asian brands top half of U.S. sales, Cox Automotive forecasts
Cox Automotive forecasts GM and Ford to lose U.S. market share in Q3, with Asian brands accounting for over half of new-vehicle sales. GM and Ford are expected to fall to 36% market share, a record low. Cox projects Q3 sales of 4.12 million vehicles, raising its full-year forecast to 16.1 million. Toyota and Hyundai are projected to gain share, while Tesla's sales are expected to drop 31%.
How this was made

The 30-second read
Why it matters
The forecast suggests a structural shift toward Asian automakers, potentially reshaping US auto stock valuations.
Market read
The new forecast may drive reallocation among auto stocks, favoring Asian manufacturers and pressuring Detroit incumbents.
What to watch
Potential impact of upcoming EV incentives and supply-chain improvements not captured in forecast.
Background
Cox Automotive released its September sales forecast, projecting market share changes for major automakers.
Ticker impact
Cox forecast projects GM market share falling to 16.7% in Q3, a new decline.
Potential short-term downside.
First report of share loss; investors may react.
Cox projects Stellantis Q3 sales dip but YTD sales up 2.8%, lifting its share to 7.8%.
Limited movement.
Forecast shows modest share increase; not a strong catalyst.
Toyota projected to gain market share to 15.6% in Q3, narrowing gap with GM.
Potential upside.
First report of share gain; may boost sentiment.
Tesla projected to lose 31% of Q3 sales, share down to 3.0%.
Short-term downside risk.
Significant sales decline forecast may weigh on price.
Market effects
US auto sector outlook weakens for Detroit Three, strengthens Asian manufacturers.
Potential shift in US vehicle demand toward Asian brands.
Highlights broader competitive dynamics in global auto market.
Counterpoint
Despite share loss forecasts, Detroit Three may benefit from pricing power and brand loyalty.
Key entities
- Research FirmCox Automotive
Provider of the sales forecast data.
- RegulatorFederal Reserve
Recent rate hike influencing auto financing conditions.




