Nike sales recovery pushed back as Bank of America cuts earnings forecast
Bank of America lowered its earnings forecast for Nike (NKE), pushing back its expected growth recovery to Q3 2028 due to weakness in the Jordan business. The firm cut its 2028 EPS estimate by 11% to $1.31 but maintained a $24 price target. Nike's sales are projected to decline 9% in 2028, 1% in 2029, and then grow 4% annually through 2031, leaving revenue flat compared to 2026 levels. The broker also expressed concerns about Nike's dividend sustainability.
How this was made
The 30-second read
Why it matters
The forecast cut signals weaker demand for Nike's Jordan line and may prompt short‑term price declines.
Market read
Analyst downgrade introduces new downside risk for Nike and could affect related consumer discretionary stocks.
What to watch
Potential upside from upcoming investor day and any surprise product launches could mitigate the forecast cut.
Background
Bank of America revised its earnings model for Nike, lowering FY2028 EPS and extending the timeline for a sales recovery.
Ticker impact
Bank of America cut Nike's FY2028 earnings per share estimate by 11% and pushed the inflection point to Q3 2028, indicating weaker near‑term performance.
downward pressure as the market prices in the earnings forecast cut
The 11% EPS reduction and delayed inflection point are new, material revisions that typically trigger a sell‑off in the short term.
Market effects
The downgrade may weigh on the broader apparel and consumer discretionary sector as peers face similar demand challenges.
U.S. equity markets could see modest weakness in consumer stocks.
Limited to markets with exposure to Nike; no immediate global macro effect.
Counterpoint
If Nike's cost‑saving PACE programme delivers faster than expected, the stock could rebound despite the downgrade.
Key entities
- CompanyNike Inc.
Global sportswear and apparel manufacturer.
- Research FirmBank of America
Equity research analyst providing the earnings forecast revision.
