$CNQ

US refiners face a potential supply drop from Canada, their largest foreign crude supplier, due to planned maintenance. Canada supplies over 4 million barrels a day, with Midwest refineries relying on it for 70% of their supply. A 300,000 barrel daily shortfall is expected, with Alberta's stockpiles at low levels. Canadian oil prices have spiked, with diesel-rich synthetic crude's premium reaching almost $20 a barrel. Companies like Suncor Energy and Canadian Natural Resources plan maintenance s

Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ) raised its 2026 production outlook to 1,637-1,682 MBOE/d, up from 1,615-1,665 MBOE/d, due to acquisitions and strong drilling results. Operating capital remains unchanged at C$5.99 billion. CNQ aims to improve capital efficiency, with investors watching for execution and cost reductions.

Canada's major oil producers, including Canadian Natural Resources, Imperial Oil, Suncor Energy, Cenovus Energy, and ConocoPhillips Canada, aim to decide on the Pathways carbon capture project by late 2027. The project, targeting 6 million tonnes of emissions reduction, is crucial for growing oil production while managing emissions. The Oil Sands Alliance expects fiscal terms agreements with governments by mid-November, with costs and regulatory approvals pending.

The TSX Composite Index fell 0.8% to 36,368 on Tuesday, led by declines in mining and financial sectors due to global bond yields and Middle East tensions. Major banks and miners dropped, while energy stocks rose on higher oil prices. NexGen Energy discussed a potential equity stake with BHP in its Rook I project.

Reuters reports at least six Canadian pipeline projects are planned or under way to expand exports to the US and Pacific by 2035, potentially adding 2.25 million bpd (45% capacity). Filling them would require Canadian oil supply to grow by over a third by 2034 and new oil sands projects. Suncor and Canadian Natural Resources have not committed to faster output; Enbridge postponed Mainline phase 2.

Reuters analysis says Canadian pipeline firms are proposing billions of dollars in new projects to expand oil exports, which would raise capacity by 45% to 2.25 million bpd by 2035. Reuters calculates this would require Canadian oil supply to grow by over a third by 2034. Suncor and Canadian Natural Resources said they are not yet accelerating output, and Enbridge postponed part of its Mainline expansion.

Reuters reports that Canadian pipeline firms are proposing billions of dollars in new projects to expand export capacity by 45% to 2.25 million bpd by 2035, but oil sands producers are not committing to the needed output growth. Enbridge postponed Mainline expansion. Suncor and Canadian Natural Resources said they are not accelerating production. Canada’s 2025 output rose 4% to 5.35 million bpd.

Simply Wall St says Canadian Natural Resources (TSX:CNQ) reported higher Q2 production and earnings, declared a C$0.625 quarterly dividend, confirmed C$2.21 billion of share buybacks (30,425,000 shares), and raised full-year 2026 production guidance. It cites 2026 guidance of 1,637 to 1,682 MBOE/d and projects CA$40.1B revenue and CA$8.6B earnings by 2029.

Capital Research Global Investors reported in a Schedule 13G/A that it holds 116,076,472 shares of Canadian Natural Resources common stock, about 5.6% of 2,068,840,000 shares outstanding, with sole voting power over 116,024,358 shares and sole dispositive power over 116,076,472 shares, according to the filing signed Aug. 11, 2026.

StockTargetAdvisor’s Aug 12, 2026 note highlights five TSX themes: Cargojet, Canadian banks, Montage Gold, Air Canada and CNQ. It cites analyst target hikes for Cargojet (Desjardins to C$135, Scotiabank to C$125, National Bank to C$112). For Air Canada, it says an Aeroplan minority deal is expected to raise about C$2.5B for debt repayment and buybacks, while Air Canada cut 2026 core profit guidance to C$2.9B–C$3.2B.