$UBS

Citigroup, Standard Chartered, and UBS are expanding precious metals trading desks due to increased client activity in gold and silver. Precious metals trading revenues are expected to rise by double digits in 2026, following a record US$4bn in 2025, according to Coalition Greenwich. Citi has invested in London Precious Metals Clearing and increased headcount, while UBS and Standard Chartered are strengthening their presence in Asia. Gold prices have rebounded 14% since August, with UBS predicti

UBS revised its forecast for the 30-year US Treasury yield to 4.9% by March 2027, up from 4.5%, citing structural pressures. The bank attributes this to Federal Reserve uncertainty, tech debt issuance, and large budget deficits. UBS favors short-term bonds and is cautious on long-duration debt. It also sees eurozone bank lending growth and rates Japanese rates to rise by 25 basis points in September.

UBS issued a 2 billion yuan (297 million USD) panda bond with a 1.78% coupon rate, the lowest for a foreign financial institution. The bank sees China's bond market as increasingly important for international funding. UBS is expanding its presence in China, increasing stakes in UBS Securities and UBS Futures. The bank aims to strengthen its investment banking, wealth, and asset management businesses in China, citing opportunities in AI and tech IPOs.

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) vice-president Antoine Martin reiterated that UBS should fully back its foreign units with high-quality equity capital (CET1) in Switzerland. The SNB opposes a Senate committee proposal allowing UBS to use less high-quality AT1 bonds for half of the requirement. UBS argues the plan would make it uncompetitive. The SNB believes higher capital requirements do not necessarily reduce profitability.

The Swiss National Bank's Vice Chairman Antoine Martin reiterated support for government banking reform proposals, urging UBS to hold more capital due to its increased size post-Credit Suisse takeover. UBS opposes the plan, citing competitiveness concerns. Lawmakers are seeking a compromise. UBS's market share grew to 25% in 2024 from 14% in 2022. The SNB views these measures as crucial for financial stability.

HSBC reported a 23% rise in first-half profit to $19.5B, beating estimates, and resumed buybacks. UBS posted a 17% profit increase to $2.8B but faces a $125M U.S. fine. HSBC raised net interest income guidance and added 640K clients. UBS announced a $3B buyback but faces regulatory and capital rule uncertainties.

UBS plans to launch a U.S. bank next year, focusing on high-touch services for wealthy clients and incentivizing advisors to sell banking products. According to a source, advisors will be 'paid handsomely' for banking activities, aiming to retain clients and compete with rivals like JPMorgan Chase. UBS's wealth management division in the Americas reported a 2.2% decline in advisors over the past year.

UBS expects the S&P 500, tracked by SPY, to reach 8,100 by 2026, a 6% increase from its current level. This forecast is based on projected earnings growth to $400 per share by 2027, driven by AI adoption. However, prediction markets are uncertain about maintaining this level, citing risks like war-related inflation and rising borrowing costs. UBS's outlook depends on economic growth, monetary policy, and AI spending, with key contributions from Nvidia, Microsoft, Amazon, and Alphabet.

Banks report increased trade loan demand, with HSBC's trade revenue up 12% to $1.54B and loan balances up 30% to $120B. Standard Chartered saw a 2% drop in trade income but a 4% Q2 uptick. European banks like Deutsche Bank and Natixis also reported growth. African banks like Afreximbank and Ecobank showed gains in trade finance. Middle Eastern banks saw mixed results due to regional disruptions.

UBS increased its BlackRock spot Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) exposure in Q2, with IBIT call exposure rising to 1.95M underlying shares and direct holdings up 12% to 407,890 shares (~$13.6M), while put exposure fell 53% to 143,300 shares, per a regulatory filing. Tudor Investment also raised IBIT holdings 18.9% to 688,529 shares (~$22.9M).