$CM

Canadian prediction markets launched via Wealthsimple Predict are drawing bets on corporate and economic data points, raising concerns from securities experts about potential insider trading and misuse of material non-public information. The platform routes orders to Kalshi, and Wealthsimple cites surveillance layers. Regulators say event contracts may be securities or derivatives and must follow insider-trading and market-manipulation rules.

CIBC appointed investment banker Mark Mulroney as head of the office of the CEO (OCEO), effective immediately, adding to his role as global vice chair. CEO Harry Culham said the OCEO will provide senior strategic perspectives to clients. Roman Dubczak will become senior strategic advisor to the OCEO on Nov. 1 and an ambassador through 2027.

National Bank analyst Gabriel Dechaine raised Q3 forecasts and fiscal 2028 estimates for Canadian banks, lifting average target prices by 18% and citing stable credit and NIM guidance, with TD as top pick. He upgraded targets for BMO, BNS, CM, EQB, RY and TD. Separately, National Bank Financial analyst Matt Kornack cut GO Residential and H&R ratings after GO’s $3.4B acquisition deal.

StockTargetAdvisor’s Aug 12, 2026 note highlights five TSX themes: Cargojet, Canadian banks, Montage Gold, Air Canada and CNQ. It cites analyst target hikes for Cargojet (Desjardins to C$135, Scotiabank to C$125, National Bank to C$112). For Air Canada, it says an Aeroplan minority deal is expected to raise about C$2.5B for debt repayment and buybacks, while Air Canada cut 2026 core profit guidance to C$2.9B–C$3.2B.

TD Cowen analyst Mario Mendonca (TD Cowen) warns Canadian bank multiples could compress as operating leverage and revenue growth moderate, citing CMRR growth slowing and flat NIMs in 2028. He raised targets for BMO, CIBC, and RBC, and adjusted BNS and NB. Raymond James analyst Stephen Boland also updated Big 6 targets. Desjardins analyst Benoit Poirier said Cargojet shares rose after results.

Canada’s TSX ended Thursday down 10.11 points at 36,136.31 as Middle East uncertainty weighed sentiment. Canadian Natural Resources rose after beating Q2 profit estimates; AtkinsRéalis and Quebecor also reported higher quarterly revenue. Restaurant Brands International topped same-store sales expectations. Shopify jumped after raising forecast revenue above estimates. Celestica fell; Lightspeed slipped.

Canada’s banks say they face hurdles financing defence firms because many SMEs lack prior procurement contracts and compliance track records. The government plans to expand defence spending, including a $6-billion BDC defence financing program and a defence industrial strategy to triple revenue. Banks cite regulatory and risk constraints, while procurement cycles can take about seven years.

Canada’s Financial Consumer Agency (FCAC) said controls at Canada’s Big Six banks to prevent misrepresented or unsuitable sales are “insufficient” and “underdeveloped,” though it found no widespread mis-selling. The FCAC reviewed RBC, TD, Scotiabank, BMO, CIBC and National Bank, will investigate possible conduct-rule breaches, and plans a modernized supervision framework. Complaints rose 28% at an industry ombudsman.

Butterfield Bank agreed to buy CIBC Caribbean Bank’s 91.7% stake from Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce for US$1.794 billion, creating a combined bank and wealth manager with about US$29 billion in assets, according to a joint release. Deal completion is expected in 1H 2027, pending approvals. The offer is US$1.14 per share, 61% cash and 39% Butterfield shares.

CIBC is testing CAI 2.0, a more powerful agentic AI workspace, with about 250 handpicked employees, after launching CAI 1.0 a year ago. CIBC said CAI costs about $3 per user per month versus about $40 for some enterprise assistants like Microsoft Copilot or Google Gemini, while CAI 2.0 users pay $4 to $250 monthly depending on usage. The bank plans gradual rollout to manage compute token costs.